OpenAI: Advertising Revenue Could Be 90% Below Forecast for 2030

OpenAI and the Advertising Revenue Forecast: A Chasm Ahead

OpenAI is facing a gigantic challenge. The forecasts for advertising revenue in 2030 could be 90% below expectations. This is not just a deviation. It’s a true chasm. The company had projected to raise $100 billion by the end of the decade, but eMarketer, a respected research firm, suggests that the advertising market for chatbots in the U.S. may only reach $5.41 billion.

The difference between expectation and reality is striking. OpenAI began its advertising tests in February and, by April, was announcing ambitious goals of $2.5 billion for this year. However, according to eMarketer, the chatbot market, including ChatGPT and competitors like Microsoft’s Copilot and Amazon’s Alexa, is not expected to exceed $1 billion by 2026. This is not just a lost growth curve. It’s as if OpenAI is aiming at a target that does not yet exist.

Bold Expectations and Harsh Reality

eMarketer argues that OpenAI's forecasts are based on bold assumptions. The company seems to believe it can capture massive search advertising budgets, dominate a fully mature chatbot advertising market, and surpass all advertising formats in history. Each of these assumptions would be ambitious on its own. Together, they form a pile of expectations that may not hold up.

The issue here is the discrepancy between OpenAI's internal vision and eMarketer's external analysis. While OpenAI does not specify whether its $100 billion figure is global or just for the U.S., eMarketer focuses exclusively on the American market. This further complicates the comparison, but the message is clear: OpenAI needs a Plan B.

Strategies at Play

If eMarketer is correct, traditional giants like Google and Meta still have a long way to go before being overtaken by the narrative that AI will swallow the search market. This suggests that OpenAI should focus its bets on paid subscriptions and APIs, rather than relying solely on advertising revenue.