Artificial Intelligence: Almost a Trillion Reasons for Brazil to Pay Attention
OpenAI, known for ChatGPT, has brought a forecast that may raise eyebrows among Brazilian economists: artificial intelligence has the potential to add R$ 986.7 billion to Brazil's GDP between 2027 and 2030. This figure, which seems straight out of a science fiction movie, was revealed in a study commissioned by OpenAI itself and conducted by Reglab.
But before we start celebrating, it's important to understand where this optimism comes from. The study projects that AI could generate a cumulative impact of 2.77% on GDP over four years. This translates to an average expansion of 0.69 percentage points per year in the Brazilian economy. The detail is that these gains will not appear overnight. They will emerge gradually as companies, workers, and governments adopt new technological tools.
Transforming Sectors
The study analyzed 12 major sectors of the Brazilian economy and highlighted two main channels of AI impact: increased worker productivity and the efficiency of machines and equipment. The manufacturing industries, which convert raw materials into new products, are expected to lead this growth, with an estimated impact of R$ 264.2 billion. Following them are services and commerce.
A curious point is how AI can transform sectors in different ways. In agriculture, for example, 92% of the impact is captured via capital, meaning through the incorporation of AI in machines and infrastructure. In financial activities, however, the increase in worker productivity accounts for 87% of the impact. This shows that technology needs to be adapted to the specificities of each area, not being a one-size-fits-all solution for all sectors.
Challenges and Opportunities
Despite the enormous potential, the implementation of AI in Brazil faces challenges. The diffusion of technology tends to be slower here than in advanced economies. This is due to the heterogeneity among companies, the high cost of credit, and gaps in professional qualifications. Additionally, the country's infrastructure still needs significant improvements to support this digital transformation.
The study also highlights that, although many tasks may be exposed to AI, this does not mean that all will be automated. In practice, AI reorganizes the set of tasks within each function. An administrative assistant, for example, may see their repetitive activities automated, while a software engineer may use AI to speed up tasks such as code correction.
By 2030, it is expected that 66.6% of the potential gains associated with increased worker productivity and 62.4% of the gains related to machines and equipment will be realized. But these numbers are potentials, not guarantees. The realization of the gains will depend on the speed of technology adoption and the institutional, regulatory, and educational conditions of the country.
In the end, the promise of almost R$ 1 trillion is an invitation for Brazil to invest in innovation and training. Artificial intelligence is not just a passing trend. It is a powerful tool that, if well utilized, can transform the Brazilian economy in ways we are just beginning to understand. The challenge now is to ensure that the country is prepared for this revolution.
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